2012 Cox Plate Final Field Analysis

October 26th, 2012

The 2012 Cox Plate is now only a day away so we will go through the entire Cox Plate field and find the leading chances in the Australasian Weight for Age Championship.

#1 – Shoot Out

The George Main Stakes (1600m) winner is a proven Group 1 performer and is currently priced at attractive odds at bookmaker.com.au. The High Chaparral gelding ran a strong fourth behind So You Think in the 2010 Cox Plate and if he can repeat that run is a good chance in this year’s race.

#2 – Sincero

Sincero won the Memsie Stakes (1400m) first-up but hasn’t shown an ability to run a strong race over 1600m.  The gelding would have to improve on his runs in the Underwood Stakes (1800m) and Caulfield Stakes (2000m) to be a factor in the finish.

#3 – Glass Harmonium

The Michael Moroney-trained stallion missed the start in last year’s Cox Plate and never had a chance of winning. Based on his recent form he couldn’t possibly win this race but he is a past winner at Group 1 weight for age level.

#4 – Green Moon

The Lloyd Williams-owned stallion has been in terrific form this campaign and proved his quality at Group 1 weight for age level in the Turnbull Stakes (2000m). The Williams/Hickmott stable has been one of the leading stables this spring and they ignored the Caulfield Cup (2400m) to focus on this race on the path to the 2012 Melbourne Cup.

#5 – Rekindled Interest

The Redoute’s Choice gelding is a Moonee Valley specialist but he hasn’t found his best form this campaign. The five-year-old has not won in his last nine starts and his career win record is extremely poor for a Cox Plate contender.

#6 – Linton

Linton is a honest galloper but he is outclassed at this level.

#7 – Happy Trails

Happy Trails stamped himself as a Cox Plate contender by winning the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes (1600m) but struggled to run out the distance in the Turnbull Stakes. He is another horse that probably doesn’t have the class to win at this level.

#8 – Ethiopia

The Helenus gelding has run well this campaign and will be flying home late if the race is run to suit. He is a good addition to trifecta and first four bets.

#9 – Ocean Park

Ocean Park has won Group 1 races in his last three starts and is the Cox Plate tip of many racing experts. He has had a flawless preparation and is one of the horses to beat.

#10 – More Joyous

The champion mare is having her second crack at the Cox Plate after finishing fifth behind So You Think in 2010. There has been much controversy over her barrier draw but gate eleven will allow her to lead without much trouble. She is currently good value at her current odds of $13 at bookmaker.com.au.

#11 – Southern Speed

The 2011 Caulfield Cup winner didn’t defend her title last week after trainer Leon Macdonald decided that this would be an easier assignment. She flopped badly in the Turnbull Stakes and will need to improve significantly if she is to become just the seventh mare in history to win the Cox Plate.

#12 – Pierro

The son of Lonhro is the current favourite for the 2012 Cox Plate. The three-year-old was undefeated until he suffered a shock loss to All Too Hard in the Caulfield Guineas (1600m), which has led experts to question whether he can handle the pressure cooker that he is the Cox Plate. He is a quality animal and if he runs to his best will be tough to beat.

#13 – All Too Hard

The half-brother of Black Caviar finally lived up to his potential with his strong victory in the Caulfield Guineas. The Casino Prince colt should be able to run a strong 2040m and if he can get a bit of luck will be involved in the finish.

#14 – Proisir

The Gai Waterhouse-trained colt has burst onto the racing scene in the 2012 Spring Racing Carnival. She will is very lightly-raced but has been extremely well backed in the Cox Plate betting market at bookmaker.com.au this week.

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